Wikipedia

2028 United States presidential election

The 2028 United States presidential election will be the 61st quadrennial presidential election. The election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028, along with other state and federal elections.[1] It will be the last presidential election to use population information from the 2020 census. Voters will elect a president and vice president to a four-year term. The winners of the election will be inaugurated on January 20, 2029.

2028 United States presidential election
← 2024 November 7, 2028 2032 →
538 members of the Electoral College
270 electoral votes needed to win
 
Party Republican Democratic
2028 electoral map, based on the results of the 2020 census.
Incumbent President

Donald Trump
Republican



Donald Trump won the 2016 and 2024 election and cannot run for re-election to a third term due to the Twenty-second Amendment. Trump's second term expires at noon on January 20, 2029.

Vice President-elect JD Vance and governors Ron DeSantis, Brian Kemp and Glenn Youngkin are potential contenders for the Republican presidential nomination.

Vice President Kamala Harris, Governors Andy Beshear, Roy Cooper, Wes Moore, Gavin Newsom, JB Pritzker, Josh Shapiro, and Gretchen Whitmer are potential contenders for the Democratic presidential nomination.

Background

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See also: 2024 United States presidential election and 2024 United States elections

Donald Trump and JD Vance won the 2024 presidential election. Trump, who was elected president in 2016 but lost the election in 2020 to then-former vice president Joe Biden. Trump defeated incumbent vice president Kamala Harris, who began her campaign following Biden's drop out of the race.[2][3] Republicans secured control of the Senate and retained a House majority.[4]

Eligibility and requirements

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Article II, Section 1, Clause 5 of the constitution states for a person to serve as president must:

  • be a natural-born citizen of the United States. [note 1]
  • be at least thirty-five years old.
  • be a permanent resident in the United States for at least fourteen years.

Electoral map

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See the main article: Red states and blue states
 
This map shows how partisan states are by the Cook Partisan Voting Index. Swing states are the states in lighter colors.

In the Electoral College, this results in major-party candidates primarily focusing their campaigns on swing states, which can swing between parties from election to election. These states are critical for a presidential candidate's path to victory. For 2028, the expected swing states are Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. The others include Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina, which all were won by Trump in 2024.[5][6][7]

Republican Party

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Potential candidates

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Potential Republican candidates[a]

Ron DeSantis

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Ron DeSantis has been the governor of Florida since 2019 and recently ran for the Republican nomination in 2024.[8] He appeared in a debate with California governor Gavin Newsom hosted by Fox News' Sean Hannity in November 2023, in what was viewed by NBC News as a potential 2028 presidential bid.[9]

Brian Kemp

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Brian Kemp has been the governor of Georgia since 2019.[10] Kemp has been seen as a potential candidate as being term-limited as governor. New sources believe Kemp will either run for U.S. Senate in 2026 or for president in 2028.[11][12]

JD Vance

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JD Vance has been the junior U.S. senator of Ohio since 2023 and is the vice president-elect after winning the 2024 election as Trump's running mate. Vance is the frontrunner in the primary election, according to The New York Times.[13] He has been dubbed the "MAGA heir-apparent" according to USA Today.[14] The Hill stated that Vance's debate performance against Minnesota Governor Tim Walz in October 2024 improved his status as a presidential contender.[15]

Glenn Youngkin

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Glenn Youngkin has been the governor of Virginia since 2022, and cannot run for re-election by the state's constitution to a second consecutive term. Youngkin has been reported as a possible candidate by Politico.[16] According to The Washington Post, he is prepping for a 2028 presidential bid.[17]

Democratic Party

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Potential candidates

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Potential Democratic candidates[a]

Andy Beshear

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Andy Beshear has been the governor of Kentucky since 2019. He was recently on the shortlist to be the vice presidential nominee for the 2024 election,[18] and was seen as a potential replacement for President Joe Biden before he withdrew from the race.[19] In October 2024, Beshear headlined an event for the New Hampshire Democrats, a key early primary state, where he promoted both himself and Vice President Kamala Harris to attendees, signaling his future aspirations.[20] In response to ongoing speculation about his political ambitions, Beshear has stated in an interview with WDKY-TV that he will "see what the future holds", without actually ruling out a potential presidential run.[21]

Roy Cooper

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Roy Cooper has been the governor of North Carolina since 2017. He was considered a potential contender to be the vice presidential nominee for the 2024 election but removed himself from consideration.[22] The New York Times mentioned that Cooper could be a contender for the Democratic party’s 2028 nomination.[23] Politico has also referred to Cooper as a potential contender for the 2028 Democratic Party's presidential nomination.[24]

Kamala Harris

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Kamala Harris has been the vice president of the United States since 2021. She became the nominee for president in the 2024 presidential election after Biden withdrew his bid, losing to Donald Trump.[25] Harris, who has the largest donor network in the Democratic Party, may run for the presidency again in 2028 according to The New York Times[25] and Politico.[26] Her her loss in the last election could be seen as a disadvantage.[25] In November 2024, Politico reported that Harris is considering running for president in 2028 or for California governor in 2026.[27]

Wes Moore

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Wes Moore has been the governor of Maryland since 2023. Moore has been mentioned by Politico after Trump's victory as one of the Democrats positioning themself for a potential presidential run in 2028.[26] It was also reported by The Baltimore Sun that if Moore is a force campaigning for Democrats in the upcoming midterm cycle, he could position himself as a national voice that would be in talks for the presidency in 2028.[28]

Gavin Newsom

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Gavin Newsom has served as the governor of California since 2019. Newsom has been viewed as a contender for the 2028 presidential election by The New York Times,[29] Politico,[26] and The Washington Post after he garnered national attention by December 2023.[30] He was seen as a potential replacement for Biden after his withdrawal from the 2024 election by The New York Times.[31] According to The New York Times, Newsom was considering a bid for the presidency by September 2023.[32] In November 2023, he appeared in a debate with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis hosted by Fox News' Sean Hannity. The debate was seen as a potential presidential bid by NBC News.[33]

Dean Phillips

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Dean Phillips has served as the representative of Minnesota's 3rd congressional district since 2019. Phillips ran a campaign against Biden in the 2024 Democratic presidential primaries.[34] Phillips received the second-highest number of delegates of any candidate in the primaries, but was unsuccessful.[35] In an interview with CBS Minnesota, Phillips was asked about his future political aspirations. He ruled out a bid for the U.S. senate or the governor's office in 2026 but said, "never say never" regarding another presidential campaign in 2028.[36] The HuffPost reported that after the election, Phillips said of his White House bid, “I would do it a thousand times again.”[37]

JB Pritzker has been the governor of Illinois since 2019. Pritzker is a potential Democratic contender, according to Chicago Sun-Times.[38] With Newsom, he donated to Middleton.[39]

Josh Shapiro

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Josh Shapiro has been the governor of Pennsylvania since 2023. Shapiro has been seen as a critical figure in Pennsylvania by Democratic strategists and officials, according to Politico and as a politician who could gain votes from white working-class voters, according to CNN.[40] He was said to be a front-runner in the primary by The Philadelphia Inquirer.[41] According to The New York Times, Shapiro was seen as a potential replacement for Biden.[31]

Gretchen Whitmer

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Gretchen Whitmer has has been the governor of Michigan since 2019. Whitmer has been discussed as a contender in 2028, although she distanced herself from speculation in an interview with Lulu Garcia-Navarro of The New York Times Magazine in June 2024.[42] She disavowed a movement to replace Biden.[43]

Declined to be candidates

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The following individuals stated that they would not run for president:

Notes

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  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 Individuals listed below have been mentioned as potential 2028 presidential candidates in at least two reliable media sources in the last six months.
  1. ↑ Foreign-born American citizens who met the age and residency requirements at the time the Constitution was adopted were also eligible for the presidency. However, this allowance has since become obsolete.

References

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  1. ↑ "Election Planning Calendar" (PDF). Essex-Virginia.org. Archived (PDF) from the original on February 7, 2016. Retrieved February 6, 2016.
  2. ↑ Burn-Murdoch, John (November 7, 2024). "Democrats join 2024's graveyard of incumbents". Financial Times. Retrieved November 8, 2024.
  3. ↑ Burton, Cooper (November 18, 2024). "Democrats aren't alone — incumbent parties have lost elections all around the world". ABC News. Retrieved November 20, 2024.
  4. ↑ Sotomayor, Marianna; Vazquez, Maegan (November 12, 2024). "Republicans inch toward 'trifecta' control of House, Senate, White House". The Washington Post. Retrieved November 14, 2024.
  5. ↑ Mallinson, Daniel J. (November 7, 2024). "How Trump won Pennsylvania − and what the numbers from key counties show about the future of a pivotal swing state". The Conversation. Retrieved November 13, 2024.
  6. ↑ Wolf, Zachary B. (November 9, 2024). "Analysis: Trump's win was real but not a landslide. Here's where it ranks". CNN. Retrieved November 13, 2024.
  7. ↑ Sedghi, Amy (November 10, 2024). "Trump wins Arizona to clinch sweep of seven battleground states". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved November 13, 2024.
  8. ↑ Nehamas, Nicholas (January 19, 2024). "Ron DeSantis Is Quietly Starting to Build His Off-Ramp From 2024". The New York Times. Retrieved March 8, 2024.
  9. ↑ Allen, Jonathan (November 30, 2023). "Gavin Newsom and Ron DeSantis battle for the presidency — in one election or the next". NBC News. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
  10. ↑ Kilgore, Ed (May 28, 2024). "Brian Kemp Is the Most Successful Anti-Trump Republican". New York. Retrieved November 27, 2024.
  11. ↑ Allison, Natalie (May 28, 2024). "Brian Kemp will attend GOP convention as he builds up political operation". Politico. Retrieved May 28, 2024.
  12. ↑ Gringlas, Sam (October 29, 2024). "In a razor-thin race, Trump's complicated ties with Georgia's governor could matter". NPR. Retrieved November 27, 2024.
  13. ↑ Cohn, Nate (July 16, 2024). "How Will Vance Affect the Race? Look at 2028, Not 2024". The New York Times. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
  14. ↑ Pfannenstiel, Brianne (July 17, 2024). "JD Vance is now the MAGA heir-apparent. Does that make him the front-runner for 2028?". USA Today. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
  15. ↑ Weaver, Al (October 3, 2024). "Debate performance gives Vance 2028 White House boost". The Hill. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
  16. ↑ Martin, Jonathan (June 12, 2024). "What Happened to Glenn Youngkin?". Politico. Retrieved November 12, 2024.
  17. ↑ Vozzella, Laura (July 16, 2024). "After last-minute VP frenzy, Youngkin seems to lay groundwork for 2028". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on July 17, 2024. Retrieved November 12, 2024.
  18. ↑ Greve, Joan E. (August 4, 2024). "Who is Andy Beshear, the Kentucky governor who could be Harris's vice-presidential pick?". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved November 17, 2024.
  19. ↑ McHugh, Calder (July 21, 2024). "How Biden's potential replacements could help — and hurt — Democrats' chances". Politico. Retrieved November 17, 2024.
  20. ↑ Wren, Adam (November 11, 2024). "Who will lead Democrats in 2028? Meet the leaders positioning themselves to make moves". Politico.
  21. ↑ "Kentucky Gov. Beshear talks Harris loss, 2028 presidential run". FOX 56 News. November 7, 2024. Retrieved November 17, 2024. 'We'll see what the future holds in the future, but, right now, my only focus is on this job, is about making sure that I continue to stand up for Kentuckians and all Americans,' Beshear said.
  22. ↑ Miller, Zeke; Min Kim, Seung (July 29, 2024). "NC Gov. Cooper opted out of Harris VP vetting, in part over worry about GOP lieutenant: AP sources". The Associated Press. Retrieved December 9, 2024.
  23. ↑ Bruni, Frank (November 14, 2024). "Newsom? Whitmer? Shapiro? 2024 Could Kill Their 2028 Dreams". The New York Times. Retrieved December 9, 2024.
  24. ↑ Sentner, Irie (December 7, 2024). "Democratic governors (and 2028 hopefuls) gather to chart path under a Trump administration". Politico. Retrieved December 9, 2024.
  25. ↑ 25.0 25.1 25.2 Epstein, Reid; Rogers, Katie; Green, Eric (November 7, 2024). "What's Next for Kamala Harris? Here Are Six Options". The New York Times. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
  26. ↑ 26.0 26.1 26.2 Wren, Adam; Cadelago, Christopher; Kashinsky, Lisa; Otterbein, Holly; Schneider, Elena (November 11, 2024). "Who will lead Democrats in 2028? Meet the leaders positioning themselves to make moves". Politico. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
  27. ↑ Cadelago, Christopher; Daniels, Eugene (November 25, 2024). "Harris is telling her advisers and allies to keep her political options open". Politico. Retrieved November 25, 2024.
  28. ↑ Janesch, Sam (November 12, 2024). "Who's going to lead the Democratic Party after defeat? Why Wes Moore's name is coming up". The Baltimore Sun. Retrieved November 19, 2024.
  29. ↑ Hubler, Shawn (November 21, 2024). "Newsom to Visit California's Trump Country: 'Message Received'". The New York Times. Retrieved November 22, 2024.
  30. ↑ Reston, Maeve (December 1, 2023). "Gavin Newsom 2028? His early moves offer a potential glimpse". The Washington Post. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
  31. ↑ 31.0 31.1 Cameron, Chris; Nagourney, Adam (June 28, 2024). "Who Will Replace Biden at the Top of the Ticket?". The New York Times. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
  32. ↑ Nagourney, Adam (September 28, 2023). "Newsom Is in the Spin Room to Pump Up Biden, and Maybe Himself". The New York Times. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
  33. ↑ Cite error: The named reference NBCDebate3 was used but no text was provided for refs named (see the help page).
  34. ↑ John, Arit; McKend, Eva; Pellish, Aaron (October 27, 2023). "House Democrat Dean Phillips launches primary challenge against President Biden". CNN. Retrieved December 12, 2024.
  35. ↑ "2024 Presidential Primary Delegate Tracker". USA Today. Retrieved December 12, 2024.
  36. ↑ Cummings, Caroline (November 29, 2024). "Rep. Dean Phillips: Dem primary would've "elevated a candidate better positioned to win" presidency". CBS News. Retrieved December 12, 2024.
  37. ↑ Nicholson, Jonathan (November 21, 2024). "Dean Phillips, Early Challenger To Biden For 2024 Nomination: I Would Do It All Again". HuffPost. Retrieved December 12, 2024.
  38. ↑ Sfondeles, Tina (November 8, 2024). "JB Pritzker studies Project 2025 and Trump, ponders his own political future". Chicago Sun-Times. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
  39. ↑ Thompson, Alex (November 6, 2023). "Newsom, Pritzker signal White House ambitions in donations to S. Carolina candidate". Axios. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
  40. ↑ Dovere, Edward-Isaac (November 10, 2024). "Still-stunned Democrats begin to squint toward their future". CNN. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
  41. ↑ McGoldrick, Gilliam (November 7, 2024). "Welcome to the 2028 presidential election cycle, where Pa. Gov. Josh Shapiro is a front-runner". The Philadelphia Inquirer. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
  42. ↑ Garcia-Navarro, Lulu (June 22, 2024). "Gretchen Whitmer Wants a Gen X President — in 2028". The New York Times Magazine. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
  43. ↑ Martin, Jonathan (July 1, 2024). "Whitmer Disavows 'Draft Gretch' Movement — and Delivers A Warning to Biden". Politico. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
  44. ↑ Smith, Allan; Korecki, Natasha; Seitz-Wald, Alex (November 16, 2024). "Democratic jockeying for the 2028 presidential election is already underway". NBC News. Retrieved November 24, 2024.
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